Analysis of the price of natural rubber market in May 2019
1)Yunnan, the main producing area in China, was seriously affected by the drought, and the main producing areas in foreign countries were successively cut. In May 2019, high temperature and drought in Yunnan continued, causing a large number of defoliation of rubber trees and outbreaks of pests and diseases, resulting in the closure of large-scale rubber gardens. The supply of new rubber in China was lower than that of the same period last year. Although Thailand and Malaysia have experienced high temperatures and droughts, the intensity is not large and the actual impact is limited.
2) The spot price of natural rubber has risen. Domestic market, in May 2019, the average price of all latex Shanghai and Shandong market was 11,395 yuan per ton, up 3.7% from the previous month and up 3.4% year-on-year; the average price of mixed rubber Shandong was 11,725 yuan per ton, up 4.4% from the previous month and up 8.7% from the same period of last year. . In Southeast Asia, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was US$1,689 per ton, up 2.6% from the previous month and down 2.6% from the previous year. The average price of SIR20 in Indonesia was US$1,496 per ton, up 2.7% from the previous month and up 1.7% year-on-year. The average price of SMR20 in Malaysia was US$1,491 per ton. The chain rose by 1.0%, up 1.2% year-on-year.
3) Natural rubber futures prices rose slightly. In May 2019, the average price of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (1909) this month was 11,899 yuan per ton, up 2.2% from the previous month and up 1.5% year-on-year. The average price of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber main contract (1910) was 189.4 yen per kilogram (RMB 11,727 yuan per ton), which was flat from the previous month and down 1.7% year-on-year.
4) It is expected that the price increase of natural rubber will be difficult to sustain in the later period. In June 2019, the main producing areas at home and abroad will gradually enter the rubber cutting season. If the high temperature and drought persist, it will have a greater impact on the supply of new rubber. Although the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is slightly reduced this month, it is still at a high level. Price continues to form pressure;
At the end of April 2019, the Customs Administration Department of the General Administration of Customs issued the Notice of the Customs and Excise Department on the identification of the classification of “mixed rubber” under the tax number 4002.8000 to regulate the import of mixed rubber, which may lead to a decrease in the import of mixed rubber. Weaken the impact of mixed rubber on the natural rubber market; affected by the Sino-US trade friction, the downstream demand is weak. At present, domestic tire companies mostly consume current inventory, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high, and the effect on rubber price is small. Based on the above factors, if there is no unexpected event, it is expected that the price increase of natural rubber will be difficult to sustain in the later period.
In May 2019, the national synthetic rubber production exceeded 2.4 million tons.
According to the latest statistics, the national synthetic rubber production in the second quarter of 2018 showed an increasing trend. In 2018, the national synthetic rubber production reached 5.59 million tons, a cumulative increase of 7.1%. As of May 2019, the national synthetic rubber production was 503,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. On the cumulative side, the national synthetic rubber production in the first four months of 2019 reached 2.001 million tons, an increase of 3%.
(Note: The cumulative production growth rates for January-February and March of 2019 were -0.3% and 1.1%, respectively)
In May 2019, China’s natural and synthetic rubber imports exceeded 2.6 million tons.
According to public statistics, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased gradually in the first four quarters of 2018. In May 2019, China's natural and synthetic rubber imports were 507,000 tons, down 21.9% year-on-year. On the cumulative side, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber reached 263.5 tons in the first five months of 2019, down 3.5% from the same period last year.
In terms of import value, the import value of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased gradually in the first four quarters of 2018. In May 2019, the import value of natural and synthetic rubber in China was US$813.5 million, down 24.3% year-on-year.